Fire AggroTier 1
at Regionals - The Banish Zone
decks
7
(8.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
43
25-16-2
overall winrate
60.5%
ELO-adjusted winrate
58.9%
avg ELO +3.1 per match
expected value
54.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.4%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1285
· median 1329
· range 1055–1479
(7 pilots with an ELO rating)
957
Q1 1183
Q3 1359
1656
43% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
29% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Allies | 14.5% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 56.2% | +3.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.2% | 6 | 5-1-0 | 83.3% | 70.0% | 64.7% | +7.8 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 48.5% | -2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.2% | 4 | 3-0-1 | 87.5% | 68.8% | 67.7% | +11.4 |
| Fire Suzaku | 6.0% | 4 | 3-1-0 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 52.6% | +1.7 |
| Water Genbu | 6.0% | 2 | 1-1-0 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +0.9 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 60.3% | +7.7 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.0% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 54.9% | +3.7 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 4.8% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 40.8% | -6.9 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 41.2% | -8.4 |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.0% | -12.8 |
| Fire Exia | 2.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Allies | 2.4% | 3 | 2-1-0 | 66.7% | 57.1% | 55.8% | +4.4 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Jin | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.0% | +3.2 |
| Fire Tera Diao Chan | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Astra Cleric | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Seiryuu | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.2% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 37.0% | -12.4 |
| Water Tera Mage | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.1% | +13.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Mage | 1.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.3% | +16.5 |
| Zander | 1.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.0% | +12.8 |
Decklists · 7 from this event
Mirror Analysis
In 3 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 3 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
Winners more often ran: Reduce to Ash, Flame Sweep, Tariff Ring. Losers more often ran: Water Resonance Bauble, Deflecting Edge, Wind Resonance Bauble.
Reduce to Ash
Winning decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
losing decks 1.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Flame Sweep
Winning decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
losing decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Tariff Ring
Winning decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
losing decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the winner ran more in
2, the loser ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Water Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Deflecting Edge
Losing decks ran 2.0
copies on average,
winning decks 1.0.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Wind Resonance Bauble
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Fiery Momentum
Losing decks ran 2.7
copies on average,
winning decks 2.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Sword Saint's Vow
Losing decks ran 0.7
copies on average,
winning decks 0.3.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Strapping Conscript
Losing decks ran 1.3
copies on average,
winning decks 0.7.
Of 3 mirrors: the loser ran more in
2, the winner ran more in 1,
both ran the same in 0.
Show all 58 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 49 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Viridian Protective Trinket | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Heated Vengeance | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Deflecting Edge | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Fiery Momentum | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint's Vow | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.33 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rending Flames | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 2 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Strapping Conscript | -0.33 | 1 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lurking Assailant | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Captivating Cutthroat | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Zander, Deft Executor | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Honorable Vanguard | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Slice and Dice | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Assassin's Ripper | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sadi, Blood Harvester | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Quicksilver Grail | +0.33 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Ignited Stab | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dire Requiem | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Training Session | -0.33 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Hone by Fire | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Backup Charger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Flame-Rune Swordsman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Blazing Throw | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Drawn Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Tempered Steel | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |
| Impact Hammer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Cremation Ritual | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |